Analysts see Kazakhstan's annual inflation at 9.3-9.7% in OctoberInflation in Kazakhstan will come in at 9.3-9.7% year-on-year in October, with monthly price growth of 0.5-0.9%, according to analysts polled by Interfax-Kazakhstan.Annual inflation slowed to 9.3% in September 2026 from 9.8% in August, falling for 12 months in a row, while monthly inflation was 0.6%, unchanged from August.In his address to the nation on Oct 28, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev told the government and the National Bank to bring inflation down by the end of the year, saying that although price growth has slowed, it remains high.Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov had earlier told the government and the National Bank to keep annual inflation below 10% through the end of 2026.Where the forecasters standACRA gave the most optimistic forecast, at 9.3-9.4% year-on-year and 0.5-0.6% month-on-month, followed by the Association of Financiers of Kazakhstan (AFK) at 9.3-9.5% and 0.5-0.7%. The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) expects 9.6% and 0.8%, and Finam forecasts 9.5-9.7% and 0.7-0.8%. Freedom Finance Global gave the most pessimistic outlook, at 9.7% year-on-year and 0.9% month-on-month.Cheap vegetables are running outAnalysts say inflation typically picks up with the first cold weather as fruit and vegetable prices rise seasonally, and they noted faster growth in some food prices in the first three weeks of October. At the same time, prices for some socially important foods, including onions, sugar, apples, potatoes and carrots, kept falling in early October. That downward contribution will fade as the cheap produce season ends.The base effect is fadingThe base effect is also pushing the annual figure higher. Freedom Finance Global analyst Daniyar Orazbayev noted that last year's low base came from a moratorium on raising housing and utility tariffs and fuel prices, which ended in the first quarter of 2026. The AFK said the strong statistical effect that drove the annual rate down in previous months is now running out.Tight money is still doing the workTight monetary conditions are still holding prices in check. The National Bank cut its base rate for the fourth time this year on Oct 24, to 15.75%, and signaled it does not plan to cut again before the end of the year.The average real rate since the start of the year is 6.5%, against 5.5% at the end of 2025, and stands at 6.95% now. The AFK said steady price growth in some non-food categories and services, along with lingering domestic price pressure, may keep the monthly food price index from slowing more sharply.A stronger national currency is adding to disinflationary pressure by limiting the pass-through of external prices to imported goods. The tenge has gained 11% since the start of the year."We believe the strong tenge and the tight monetary conditions maintained by the regulator will help bring inflation down gradually toward the target," the EDB said.Inflation is proving stickyOlga Belenkaya, head of macroeconomic analysis at Finam, said October could bring an unusual situation in which annual inflation rises, at least temporarily, as the seasonal fall in prices for the new harvest fades and utility tariffs rise with the start of the heating season. She said pro-inflationary risks remain over the medium term, tied to a stronger fiscal impulse, imported global inflation and the path of utility and fuel prices.Zhanur Ashigali, director of the sovereign and regional ratings group at ACRA, said that although annual inflation has entered single digits, disinflation has dragged on, and the economy is marked by high domestic consumption and investment demand and by real incomes turning positive. "Prices are being propped up by multiple factors: services inflation remains persistent, food and non-food inflation is getting supportive signals, including monetary ones, and inflation expectations remain entrenched," Ashigali said. (ICE ALMATY)

Fonte notizia: INTERFAX