IMF holds Macau outlook steady, raises Hong Kong growth forecastIMF upgrades Hong Kong’s 2026 GDP growth forecast to 3.8 per cent while keeping Macau’s economic outlook unchanged at 3.3 per cent.China’s growth estimates trimmed slightly for 2026 and 2027 amid weak domestic demand and rising energy costs despite resilient exports.The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised upwards its economic growth forecast for Hong Kong whilst keeping its projection for the Macau SAR unchanged at 3.3 per cent.According to the latest World Economic Outlook released on Tuesday, the IMF expects Hong Kong’s gross domestic product (GDP) to expand by 3.8 per cent in 2026, up 1.2 percentage points from its previous forecast of 2.4 per cent made in May.In May, following its annual Article IV consultation mission to Hong Kong, the institution had projected that the local economy would maintain a 2.4 per cent expansion rate in 2027. However, the report upgrades next year’s growth forecast to 2.8 per cent.GDP in the former British colony grew by 3.6 per cent in 2025 and expanded by 5.1 per cent in the first half of this year, official data show.Regarding Macau, the report maintains the forecast—issued in late July following the IMF’s annual consultation mission—of 3.3 per cent economic growth in 2026. GDP is expected to grow by 3.1 per cent next year, the institution added.Macau’s economy grew by 4.7 per cent in 2025 and 2.7 per cent in the first half of this year, according to official figures.China and global outlookIn the same document, the IMF slightly downgraded its growth projections for China for 2026 and 2027, citing sluggish domestic demand and rising energy prices, despite resilient export performance.In the updated projections, the institution now anticipates 4.5 per cent growth for the Chinese economy this year—down 0.1 percentage points from the previous estimate—followed by a slowdown to 4.0 per cent in 2027, also a 0.1 percentage point downward revision.Globally, the IMF’s World Economic Outlook projects global economic growth at 3.1 per cent in 2026 and 3.4 per cent in 2027.The 2026 forecast remains unchanged from April, but reflects a 0.1 percentage point upward revision compared to July’s update. The 2027 estimate was raised by 0.2 percentage points compared to April, while remaining unchanged from July.Nevertheless, the IMF cautioned that this headline performance masks “large offsetting shifts across countries and a higher concentration of global growth”.According to IMF data, just 32 economies now account for 95 per cent of global growth, down from 54 economies in April. Downward revisions have become more widespread, with around 47 per cent of economies seeing their growth projections reduced.“The global economy is not simply accelerating or decelerating; growth is being reallocated across countries depending on each economy’s exposure to war-related supply shocks and the strength of demand driven by artificial intelligence,” the report noted.https://macaubusiness.com/imf-holds-macau-outlook-steady-raises-hong-kong-growth-forecast/ (ICE HONG KONG)

Fonte notizia: Macau Business