Analysts see September inflation slowing to 9.6%-9.1%Inflation in Kazakhstan is expected to come in at 9.6%-9.1% year-on-year and 0.9%-0.5% month-on-month in September 2026, according to analysts polled by Interfax-Kazakhstan.Annual inflation slowed to 9.8% in August from 10.2% in July, while monthly inflation held at July's 0.6%. Inflation was 10.3% year-on-year in June, 10.4% in May, 10.6% in April, 11% in March, 11.7% in February and 12.2% in January.The highest September forecast comes from the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) and Alpari analyst Anna Bodrova, at 9.6%. Finam macro analysis chief Olga Belenkaya expects 9.5%-9.3%, the Kazakhstan Financiers Association (KFA) sees 9.1%-9.4%, and Freedom Finance Global analyst Daniyar Orazbayev expects 9.3%.Month-on-month forecasts: EDB at 0.9%, Orazbayev at 0.7%, KFA at 0.7%-0.5%, Belenkaya at 0.6%-0.5% and Bodrova at 0.5%.Food prices weigh on inflationAnalysts note a continuing seasonal effect. Prices for new-harvest agricultural produce are falling again in September."Slower monthly growth in non-food prices than a year ago will likely help," Orazbayev said. "In September 2025, that segment posted its biggest monthly gain since 2022, at 1.5%. With gasoline prices stable and the tenge stronger, we are unlikely to see a repeat."Price growth in paid services may also ease somewhat, he said.Other goods still risingAt the same time, analysts point to gains in other categories."Clothing, footwear and many market services — health care, recreation and culture, restaurants and hotels — are still rising at double-digit rates. Risks come from imported inflation, as well as from further fuel and utility tariff moves," Belenkaya said.The EDB points to global trends pushing goods prices higher."Additional inflationary risks stem from rising international shipping costs and world prices for food and fertilizer. The FAO food index rose 1.9% month-on-month in August, and the World Bank projects fertilizer prices will climb 31% by the end of 2026," the EDB said.Domestic factors also weigh. "Persistent domestic price pressure, higher utility and fuel prices and steady core inflation may keep monthly inflation from slowing more sharply," KFA analysts said.Tight policy, strong tengeModerately tight monetary conditions remain a brake on inflation, the EDB said. With the National Bank's nominal base rate at 16.25%, set Sept. 4, the real rate is about 5.9%.Slower growth in consumer lending, driven by tight policy and macroprudential measures, is also helping. A stronger national currency is an additional drag on prices."The external backdrop is mixed: high oil prices support the tenge and budget revenue, but expensive energy is also driving up global transport and production costs," Alpari expert said.OutlookAnalysts said inflation will cool slowly, as usual, and none see an optimistic scenario.The EDB notes household inflation expectations for the year ahead stood at 12.1% in August, above the 10.9% average for 2017-2020.A marked drop in the annual figure in September will largely reflect last year's high base, the KFA said."We expect the disinflation trend to continue, though at a moderate pace. A quick return to target looks unlikely. Our base case is a gradual slowdown over the rest of the year with fairly tight monetary conditions," Bodrova said.The National Bank's 9%-11% range for the end of 2026 is consistent with persistent but gradually easing price pressure, she said. (ICE ALMATY)

Fonte notizia: INTERFAX