EBRD keeps Kazakhstan 2026 GDP growth forecast at 4.7%The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has kept its forecast for Kazakhstan's economic growth in 2026 at 4.7%, according to its September Regional Economic Prospects report published Thursday.In June 2026, the EBRD also forecast Kazakhstan's GDP growth at 4.7% for 2026. The 2027 forecast was also left unchanged, with growth expected at 4.5%.According to the EBRD, disruptions along the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) export route, together with fire- and power-related incidents at the Tengiz field in early 2026, resulted in an 8.9% contraction in oil and gas output in January-July 2026.At the same time, non-oil sectors remained robust. “Manufacturing output increased by 9.0 per cent year on year over the same period, supported by strong performance in machine building, particularly the production of motor vehicles, trailers and semitrailers, as well as equipment repair and installation, food processing and chemicals. Construction expanded by 15.3 per cent year on year, driven by large-scale infrastructure projects,” the report says.The main downside risks stem from further disruptions to oil export routes, weaker external demand and lower commodity prices, the EBRD said.According to the government, Kazakhstan's GDP grew 4.1% in the first eight months of 2026. The economy expanded 6.5% in 2025. The Asian Development Bank forecasts Kazakhstan's GDP growth at 4.8% in 2026 and 4.5% in 2027.According to a forecast announced in early September, the National Bank of Kazakhstan expects GDP growth of 4.5-5.5% in 2026 and around 4.5% in 2027. (ICE ALMATY)

Fonte notizia: INTERFAX