ADB keeps Kazakhstan GDP, inflation forecasts for 2026-2027The Asian Development Bank kept its forecast for Kazakhstan's GDP growth at 4.8% in 2026 and 4.5% in 2027, according to its September Asian Development Outlook.ADB analysts also left their inflation forecasts unchanged at 10.4% for 2026 and 9.5% for 2027, the same figures they gave in their July and April reviews.The bank noted a slowdown in growth in the first half of 2026 caused by disruptions in the oil sector. "The decline reflected an extended outage at the Tengiz oil field in the first quarter and repeated disruptions to the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, which carries over 80% of Kazakhstan’s oil exports," the bank said."Consumption and investment supported growth while net exports declined," the review said.Oil export volumes fell 8.1%, though high oil prices supported export revenue. Goods imports rose 6.7% on increased purchases of machinery and equipment. The services balance deficit narrowed to 0.3% of GDP from 0.6% on growth in transport services."In 2027, growth will rely increasingly on non-oil sectors as oil production remains near capacity while planned maintenance and potential disruptions constrain output. Manufacturing and trade are expected to benefit from normalizing domestic demand, while construction will stay robust," the ADB said.Agricultural output will continue to depend on weather and harvest conditions, the bank said.Kazakhstan's economy grew 6.5% in 2025 and 4.1% in January–August 2026. Inflation was 12.3% in 2025, up from 8.6% a year earlier, and stood at 9.8% year-on-year in August.The National Bank of Kazakhstan expects GDP growth of 4.5–5.5% in 2026 and around 4.5% in 2027, with inflation at 9–11% by the end of 2026 and 6.5–8.5% in 2027, according to a forecast presented in early September.The Asian Development Bank was founded in 1966 and has 69 members, 50 of them in the Asia-Pacific region. (ICE ALMATY)

Fonte notizia: INTERFAX