AI boom will sustain Hong Kong’s export surge, lift GDP outlook, economists say Hong Kong’s export surge will extend into the coming months, driven by the global AI boom, economists have told the South China Morning Post, adding that gross domestic product (GDP) growth could surpass official forecasts. Billy Mak Sui-choi, an associate professor at Baptist University’s accountancy, economics and finance department, said global demand for artificial intelligence (AI) remained far from saturated and would continue to drive exports. “No single country has yet been able to dominate the AI field across models, services and hardware,” he said. “As long as countries see an opportunity to compete, they will continue investing in the necessary hardware.” Mak noted that while initial AI demand centred on Nvidia’s graphics processing units, businesses realised that a broader ecosystem was required, including memory chips, photovoltaic modules and motherboards, helping to explain Hong Kong’s strong exports and re-exports from mainland China. Hong Kong exports rose by 53.4 per cent year on year in June, as overseas demand for the region’s electronic products supporting AI pushed monthly shipments to their highest level since March 1984, when the same figure stood at 61.6 per cent. Provisional figures released by the Census and Statistics Department on Monday showed the value of exports climbed to a record HK$641.1 billion (US$81.7 billion) after a 40.8 per cent rise in May. Mak added that the rising export values also reflected higher prices for AI components such as memory chips – which have more than doubled over the past two to three years – and a relative easing in China-US trade tensions that has further supported re-exports. In addition to memory chips, other hardware such as hard drives, cooling solutions, power supply units and other related materials could also be bought from the rest of China and exported through Hong Kong. Mak said that while AI firms were likely to continue growing, some could slow over time. He also warned of potential concerns in the sector, as a small group of companies engaged in large, circular investments in one another. Mak was cautiously optimistic about Hong Kong’s economic outlook, projecting GDP growth at or slightly above the government’s upper estimate of 3.5 per cent, “unless there is some kind of black swan event”. The term “black swan” refers to an unpredictable, rare event that has a major impact on society or financial markets. He based his GDP projection on solid performance across four key sectors – financial services, trading and logistics, professional services, and tourism – and estimated first-half growth at around 5 per cent. According to government data, imports rose by 45.4 per cent to HK$693 billion in June, leaving a monthly trade deficit of HK$52 billion. Imports grew fastest from South Korea, with the value increasing by 176.7 per cent from a year earlier, followed by Vietnam and India. In the first half of 2026, total exports increased by 39.1 per cent from a year earlier, while imports grew by 40.6 per cent, leaving a trade deficit of HK$294.6 billion. As Hong Kong’s exports are predominantly re-exports, the city continues to benefit from strong chip shipments from the mainland. Hong Kong’s major export markets include Singapore, Taiwan, the United States and Thailand. Tommy Wu, Standard Chartered Bank’s senior economist for Greater China and North Asia, said Hong Kong would continue to benefit from the global AI “supercycle” for the rest of 2026, given its role as a regional trade hub. He said the bank has projected Hong Kong’s GDP growth at 4.3 per cent this year – above the government’s range – driven by export strength and related gains in trade and logistics services. Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo-po, in his February budget address, projected GDP growth of 2.5 to 3.5 per cent for 2026. Bruce Pang Ming, director of research at the Hong Kong Trade Development Council, observed that export growth to Asia, the mainland and the US all accelerated in June compared with May. https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/hong-kong-economy/article/3362167/ai-boom-will-sustain-hong-kongs-export-surge-lift-gdp-outlook-economists-say?pgtype=live (ICE HONG KONG)

Fonte notizia: South China Morning Post