DON'T CELEBRATE TOO SOONEconomist Bauyrzhan Shurmanov expects annual inflation of 10.1-10.3% in June."The macroeconomic picture in Kazakhstan right now is a classic tug-of-war between strong disinflationary forces and persistent domestic and external pressures. June's annual inflation should continue to drift lower, settling in the 10.1% to 10.3% range. But it's too early to celebrate, as this slowdown is largely statistical, driven by a strong base effect from last year and seasonal factors," Shurmanov said.He warned that pro-inflationary risks, both domestic and external, remain elevated. "The biggest worry is services, where prices are being pushed up by non-monetary factors – higher regulated utility tariffs and fuel price revisions, which the central bank's tight policy cannot directly influence," he said.The situation is aggravated by serious challenges on the domestic fuel and lubricants market. Overheated consumer demand, fueled by rapid retail lending growth, is adding pressure by driving up imports and worsening the current account, erasing the temporary cyclical gains from commodity exports. Kazakhstan also continues to import inflation from Russia and elsewhere, while global supply problems with electronics and tech components add another layer, he noted.Looking ahead, Shurmanov does not expect inflation in Kazakhstan to fall below 10% by year-end.DON'T COUNT ON GROCERIESFreedom Finance Global analyst Daniyar Orazbayev forecasts June inflation at 10.2% year-on-year and 0.6-0.7% month-on-month, pointing to a continued slowdown in food price growth as the main factor."Food staples rose 0.3% in the first 17 days of June, compared with 0.5% over the same period last year. Still, we shouldn't expect a sharp slowdown in food inflation, given the spike in some vegetable prices. Non-food goods could provide some relief – they rose quite strongly last June, which means a high probability of slower growth this year," Orazbayev said.A PHANTOM SLOWDOWNThe Analytical Center of the Kazakhstan Financiers' Association (AFK) estimates June month-on-month inflation at 0.6-0.8%, putting the annual figure at 10.2-10.5%.The AFC said tight monetary conditions and gradually cooling domestic demand should help restrain price growth. That cooling is already visible in retail trade, which slowed to 3.6% in January-May from 6.5% a year earlier, and in household lending, which contracted 4.7% in the first four months of 2026. A relatively stable exchange rate is also limiting the pass-through of external price pressures."In the coming months, pro-inflationary risks from regulated tariffs, fuel prices, budget spending and inflation expectations will persist. So despite the likely slowdown in the annual figure, it is still too early to speak of a sustainable disinflationary trend," the AFK said. (ICE ALMATY)

Fonte notizia: INTERFAX