The EUR/USD exchange rate has recently fallen below the 1.14 mark, reflecting a significant macroeconomic divergence between the United States and the Eurozone.On June 11, 2026, the European Central Bank (ECB) raised its key interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the deposit facility rate to 2.25% to combat inflation pressures stemming from the Middle East.Despite this tightening, ECB staff projections estimate sluggish economic growth of just 0.8% for the euro area in 2026.In contrast, the US economy remains resilient, with Q1 2026 GDP growth revised upward to an annualized rate of 2.1%.The US Federal Reserve's latest "dot plot" projections suggest a hawkish stance, with the median forecast for the end-of-2026 federal funds rate rising to 3.8%.Institutional forecasts present varied scenarios for the upcoming quarter. Danske Bank maintains a bearish outlook, forecasting the pair will drop to the 1.12 support level over the next twelve months due to tightening global financial conditions. Meanwhile, ING Bank adopts a more balanced view, expecting the EUR/USD pair to remain under pressure near the 1.14 to 1.15 levels in the near term before gradually recovering. Upcoming US economic data releases, including the Non-Farm Payrolls scheduled for July 2, 2026, will serve as critical catalysts for near-term currency movements. (ICE DUBAI)

Fonte notizia: https://www.arabianbusiness.com/