"HOW" MATTERS MORE THAN "WHAT"Economist Bauyrzhan Shurmanov described BAE Systems’ exit as the logical conclusion of an investment cycle spanning more than two decades, during which the British company played a key role in shaping the carrier’s corporate governance and international standing.“Following the IPO and a series of secondary placements, BAE Systems’ continued presence lost its strategic significance,” Shurmanov said.He said the sale of the British group’s remaining stake was not linked to the airline’s current operational challenges.“From a market perspective, this is a classic exit by a financial investor, not a signal of problems in the business,” Shurmanov told Interfax-Kazakhstan.However, Shurmanov noted that the manner of the exit is important: selling a large stake at a discount increases short-term pressure on the share price and heightens volatility.“The company is temporarily vulnerable in terms of profitability and operational performance. And it is precisely at this moment that a shareholder exits at a discount. This intensifies market pressure and may lock in a more conservative valuation in the short term,” he said.In the longer term, Shurmanov assessed the development as moderately positive, noting that a larger free float could broaden the investor base and support a more balanced market valuation. The company is becoming more market-oriented, with less reliance on strategic shareholders, he added.A BLOW TO IMAGE?For Air Astana, there are no immediate operational consequences, Shurmanov said, noting that the company is not raising capital and its governance structure remains unchanged.“However, there are indirect effects: the anchor role of a foreign investor, which historically supported confidence among international investors, is weakening,” he said.The company is primarily losing the reputational and institutional capital associated with the presence of a major Western shareholder, he added. This has less impact on day-to-day operations than on how the airline is perceived in international markets.WILL THERE BE A NEW STRATEGIC PARTNER?Daniyar Temirbayev, executive director of QAMS Association, said he does not expect a sharp decline in the price of the airline’s shares following the news.“I believe BAE Systems’ exit was anticipated by the market. A significant drop is unlikely, given that the share prices have already undergone a substantial correction and arrived at their historical low. It is quite possible that the correction already reflected expectations of BAE Systems’ exit,” Temirbayev told Interfax-Kazakhstan.He said the airline now faces a key strategic challenge: finding a new partner to support its long-term development.“Regarding Air Astana’s long-term prospects, there is a sense that the company lacks a strategic partner, which BAE Systems effectively was – an investor that understands the company’s development trajectory, provides guidance and offers a broader vision for leveraging Kazakhstan’s transit potential as a hub between Southeast Asia, Europe and the Middle East, a highly promising direction,” Temirbayev said.He added that the market and shareholders would welcome the entry of a large, experienced strategic investor – such as Singapore Airlines, Etihad Airways or a similar carrier – that recognizes the potential of Kazakhstan’s relatively young air travel market, which could significantly boost investor interest in Air Astana.Air Astana is the largest air carrier in Kazakhstan and the sole owner of low-cost airline FlyArystan. In February 2024, Air Astana raised nearly $370 million in an IPO, while the entire company was valued at $847 million. (ICE ALMATY)

Fonte notizia: INTERFAX