The Bank of Lithuania has released its updated macroeconomic forecast, projecting GDP growth of 2.5% in 2025, supported by domestic demand, rising wages, and continued public investment, particularly through EU structural funds. Inflation is expected to remain stable, while household consumption and employment levels continue to improve.At the same time, the report highlights growing external uncertainties, including weaker global demand, trade restrictions, and geopolitical instability. In particular, the Bank warns that U.S. protectionist policies and disrupted supply chains could weigh on Lithuania’s exports and industrial output, especially in sectors sensitive to international markets.Against this backdrop, there is an increased emphasis on reliable intra-EU trade relationships. As a long-standing commercial partner, Italy remains among Lithuania’s top ten import sources, with strong ties in the machinery, agri-food, chemical, and design sectors. In 2024, Italy exported goods to Lithuania worth over €1.5 billion, while Lithuanian exports to Italy stood near €1 billion (Trading Economics).If current global trade risks persist, Lithuania may lean further toward European suppliers in key industries such as energy systems, smart manufacturing, and food processing technologies - areas where Italian businesses are well represented.The outlook suggests that maintaining stable and diversified EU supply chains will be important for Lithuania’s economic resilience in the coming year. Italian companies already operating in the Baltic region, or exploring opportunities in northern Europe, may find a relatively favourable context for medium-term engagement. (ICE VARSAVIA)

Fonte notizia: Bank of Lithuania; LRT.lt; TradingEconomics