IMPORTS COSTLIER, EXPORTS SHRINKINGOlga Belenkaya, head of the macroeconomic analysis department at FG Finam, agrees with her colleagues: the base rate will remain at the high level of 16.5%.She noted that at its previous meeting the central bank signaled rates would likely remain high through end-2025, while keeping open the option of a hike if inflation risks intensify."In our view, there is no need to raise the base rate now, and keeping it at the current level remains the most expected scenario," she said.Belenkaya pointed to diverging inflation trends in July: food inflation accelerated to 11.2% year-on-year (from 10.6% in June), while services inflation slowed to 14.2% (from 16.1%). She suggested that this situation could be explained by the fact that the government delayed utility tariff hikes.At the same time, inflation risks persist. Tenge has weakened as Kazakhstan’s trade surplus narrowed 32.9% year-on-year in H1 2025, with exports down 7.1% and imports up 3.5%.When exports are under pressure from lower oil prices, imports grow due to strong domestic demand, supported by increased budget spending, including for large infrastructure and social projects, as well as money supply growth (as noted by the head of the National Bank of Kazakhstan, Timur Suleimenov, the money supply volume increased by 18% over the year).Global food prices are also rising: the FAO food price index rose 1.6% month-on-month and 7.6% year-on-year in July, lifting costs of imported vegetable oils and meat.Meanwhile, the regulator has stepped up disinflationary measures, including tighter reserve requirements, macroprudential limits on consumer lending, mirrored FX operations, and phased adjustments to utility tariffs.THE FURTHER IT GOES, THE MORE IT GROWSEconomist Bauyrzhan Shurmanov also agrees that at the moment there are no objective grounds for lowering the base rate. "The probability of maintaining the current level is about 90%, but one cannot even rule out a further increase," suggests Shurmanov.Shurmanov cited expected housing price growth by the end of 2025, producer price adjustments from the new Tax Code, and phased tariff hikes as inflation drivers. He also flagged falling oil prices, rising OPEC+ output, and the risk of imported inflation from Russia as Ruble strengthens. In the U.S., price growth is persisting, forcing the Fed to hold rates; in the EU, inflation is still elevated, he said"In this environment, the National Bank has limited tools and little room to ease. Responsibility lies more with the government, which has greater capabilities to curb inflation. The government needs to optimize fiscal spending, which remains a significant factor driving price increases and stimulating excessive economic activity,” Shurmanov said.The Monetary Policy Committee of the Kazakh National Bank is to announce its next decision on the base rate on August 29, 2025 at 12:00 Astana time. (ICE ALMATY)

Fonte notizia: INTERFAX