Hong Kong economy forecast to grow by 2-3% in 2025 despite US tariffs, geopolitics Hong Kong’s economy will expand by between 2 and 3 per cent this year as previously forecast despite worsening geopolitics, with a robust local stock market, stabilised property sector and rising wages sustaining further growth, the government has said. The Census and Statistics Department said on Friday that economic growth for the second quarter was 3.1 per cent, in line with its advanced estimate. The figure was about the same as first-quarter growth of 3 per cent year on year. Acting government economist Cecilia Lam Kwok-ying said the expansion was thanks to strong exports and improving local consumption and that she expected the economy to continue to grow for the rest of the year. “We’ve considered a few factors for this, including the continued steady growth of the Asian economy, in particular that of China’s, which was coupled with increases in income from local employment,” Lam said. “A thriving stock market and a stabilising property market, as well as the government’s various measures to boost consumption, attract investment and diversify markets, will also provide further support to the Hong Kong economy.” Still, uncertainties remain. “The tariff rates announced by the US in early August stay elevated, and its tariff policy on some commodities remains quite uncertain,” Lam said. “The impact of these developments on international trade flows and also the US’ inflation and economic activities may surface gradually later this year.” US President Donald Trump signed an executive order on August 12 extending the United States’ tariff truce with China by 90 days to November 10. During the period, the existing 10 per cent “reciprocal” tariff on Chinese imports will continue to be in effect. Hong Kong’s exports of goods jumped 11.5 per cent over a year earlier in the second quarter. Exports of services rose by 7.5 per cent, which the government attributed to growth in inbound tourism and buoyant financial activities. Retail sales edged up 0.7 per cent year on year in June, marking the second straight month of growth following 14 in a row of decline. However, the increase was smaller than the revised 2.4 per cent growth in May. Lam said private consumption had turned around in the second quarter, increasing by 1.9 per cent over the same period last year, compared with a 1.2 per cent year-on-year fall in the preceding three months. She said a decline in local interest rates, a stock market bull run and stabilisation in the residential property sector had helped to lift consumer confidence. “Since entering the third quarter, the local stock market has stayed vibrant, with the index surpassing the level at the end of the second quarter in recent days,” she said. Economists’ latest growth forecasts for the city’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2025 range between 1.8 per cent and 3 per cent, or an average of 2.4 per cent, from last year. This is similar to the government’s forecast of 2 to 3 per cent growth from last year. The government’s confidence in reaching its growth target is reflected in its efforts in boosting spending among locals and tourists. The city welcomed 4.39 million tourists in July, 12 per cent more than in the same month last year. That took the total in the first seven months to about 28 million, also 12 per cent more year on year. Long-haul visitors led the growth, rising by 21 per cent year on year in July, including arrivals from the United Kingdom, the United States and France. Vera Yuen Wing-han, an economics lecturer at the University of Hong Kong, said the 2 to 3 per cent growth forecast for the year was feasible, given the first two quarters hovered around the upper end of the estimate. “The uncertainties from the trade war have been around for a while, but it’s precisely because we’ve managed 3 and 3.1 per cent amid such concerns that we have confidence that Hong Kong could achieve the forecast for the year,” Yuen said. While there might be effects on the economy once the 90-day tariff truce was over, she said its impact would depend on the results of talks between the two sides, with most businesses planning for the worst as early as 2018 but also in recent months. https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/hong-kong-economy/article/3322008/hong-kong-economy-forecast-grow-2-3-2025-despite-us-tariffs-geopolitics (ICE HONG KONG)

Fonte notizia: South China Morning Post