Eurasian Fund projects 5% GDP growth for Kazakhstan in 2025The Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development (EFSD) forecasts Kazakhstan's GDP growth at 5% for 2025, according to its Summer'25 regional economic review released Thursday.The report attributes this expansion primarily to oil production increases at the Tengiz field and related spillover effects in the transport and trade sectors. Analysts note that major infrastructure projects, including state-backed initiatives, will further stimulate growth in non-resource sectors like manufacturing and construction.However, the EFSD anticipates a slowdown to 4.5% growth in 2026-2027 due to expected fiscal tightening. "This will gradually close the positive output gap," the review states, warning that consumer demand may weaken amid tight monetary policy and new lending restrictions.The fund specifically cited the National Bank's phased increase in reserve requirements for second-tier banks as potentially "significantly constraining credit growth" when combined with existing liquidity sterilization measures.Contrary to government projections, the EFSD expects year-end inflation to reach 10.9% in 2025, remaining elevated at 9% in 2026 and 7.2% in 2027 – well above the official 5% target. Key inflationary pressures include utility sector reforms, the VAT hike to 16%, and ongoing coordination challenges between monetary and fiscal policies. (ICE ALMATY)

Fonte notizia: INTERFAX