ADB lowers Kazakhstan's 2025 GDP growth forecast to 4.9%The Asian Development Bank has revised Kazakhstan's 2025 economic growth forecast downward to 4.9% from its December projection of 5.1%, according to the bank's Asian Development Outlook 2025 report released Wednesday.The ADB maintained its 2026 growth estimate at 4.1%, citing expected fiscal consolidation measures.The bank attributed the 2025 growth acceleration to anticipated oil production increases from the Tengiz field's Future Growth Expansion project. However, it warned growth could slow in 2026 due to planned tax policy changes and reduced government spending."An increase in Kazakhstan’s economic growth in 2025 reflects an expected rise in oil production from the launch of the Future Growth Expansion project at Tengiz. Tapering in growth in 2026 is projected on the back of fiscal consolidation as the anticipated increase in taxes comes into effect and fiscal spending is moderated. Downside risks to the outlook include negative spillovers from global issues, as well as potential disruptions to oil export routes," according to the Asian Development Outlook (ADO) April 2025.ADB Country Director Utsav Kumar emphasized strengthening fiscal management. “Kazakhstan's economy has been growing steadily. To ensure this growth is sustained, it is critical to strengthen public financial management and improve fiscal governance to reduce reliance on the National Fund,” Kumar said. “These measures, alongside structural reforms for private sector development, will bolster the economy's ability to withstand external shocks.”The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has raised its inflation forecast for Kazakhstan, now expecting consumer prices to increase by 8.2% in 2025, up from its December projection of 6.1%. The bank anticipates inflation will moderate to 6.5% in 2026 as tighter monetary policy and exchange rate stability help curb price growth. This comes after March 2025 inflation reached double digits at 10% year-on-year.On fiscal matters, the ADB projects Kazakhstan's budget deficit will grow slightly to 2.8% of GDP in 2025 before narrowing to 1.7% in 2026, reflecting planned VAT increases and reduced tax exemptions. The current account deficit is expected to shrink due to rising oil exports.The bank cautioned that its forecasts were finalized before new U.S. tariffs were announced on April 2, though its April report includes analysis of potential regional impacts from higher tariffs.Kazakhstan's economy showed strong momentum in early 2025, with GDP growing 5.4% year-on-year in January-February, driven by expansion in both goods production and services. The ADB's revised 2025 growth forecast of 4.9% compares to the World Bank's 4.7% estimate and Kazakhstan's National Bank projection of 4.2-5.2%.Recent economic performance shows GDP growth of 4.8% in 2024 (down from 5.1% in 2023), while annual inflation slowed from 9.8% to 8.6% over the same period. However, the National Bank has warned of potential inflation reaching 10-12% in 2025 due to external price pressures, fuel costs, VAT increases, and ongoing utility sector reforms. (ICE ALMATY)

Fonte notizia: INTERFAX