Kazakhstan faces rising inflation in March, forecast at 9.5%-13.9%Inflation in Kazakhstan is expected to accelerate to 9.5%-13.9% year-on-year in March, according to analysts surveyed by Interfax-Kazakhstan.Monthly price growth is projected at 0.7%-1.1%. February saw annual inflation rise to 9.4% from 8.9% in January, with monthly inflation climbing to 1.5%.Experts attribute the acceleration to rising utility tariffs, weaker domestic currency, and higher monetary aggregates.Analysts like Olga Belenkaya of Finam note that while monthly inflation may slow slightly (0.8%-1%) due to seasonal factors and a stronger tenge, annual inflation could increase further (9.5%-9.7%) due to base effects. "In March, due to seasonal factors, some strengthening of the tenge against the dollar since the start of the year, and slower current inflation in Russia, monthly inflation in Kazakhstan may slightly ease to 0.8%-1%. However, due to the base effect, annual inflation may rise slightly, to 9.5%-9.7%," Belenkaya explained.Others forecast an even sharper rise, with estimates reaching up to 13.9%-17.9% under pessimistic scenarios. Key drivers include hikes in housing and utility costs, rising food prices, and imported inflation pressures. For instance, cold water tariffs surged by 70.7% in February, exacerbating price growth. Meanwhile, slowing inflation in neighboring Russia and China offers some relief, but domestic challenges persist.Daniaar Orazbaev of Freedom Finance Global forecasts an acceleration of annual inflation to 9.6%, driven by rising prices for essential food items and paid services. "We expect further acceleration of annual inflation to 9.6% by the end of March. Socially significant food items are rising faster this March compared to last year. For the first 18 days of March, these goods increased by 0.7%, versus 0.1% in 2024," Orazbaev noted.Analysts from the Association of Financial Institutions of Kazakhstan (AFK) predict annual inflation in the range of 9.7%-9.9%, with monthly inflation at 0.9%-1.1%. They highlighted external factors such as slowing inflation in Russia and deflation in China as potential mitigating influences. "Among external factors, we note the observed slowdown in prices in Russia and deflation in China. Additionally, normalization of geopolitical tensions and supply chains could reduce transaction costs," the AFK team stated.Zhannur Ashigali of ACRA warned of persistently high inflation, forecasting an annual rate of 9.8%. "Monthly consumer inflation is expected at around 1%, resulting in an annual inflation rate of 9.8%. This reflects the strengthening inflation wave, which remains above the target level set by monetary authorities," Ashigali said.Bakbergen Toktasyn of BCC Invest outlined three scenarios for inflation: optimistic (11%), baseline (11.8%), and pessimistic (13.9%-17.9%). He pointed to utility tariff hikes as a key driver of inflation. "If utility tariffs return to a more moderate growth trajectory and no additional shocks occur, we expect some slowdown in monthly inflation. However, annual inflation will still accelerate," Toktasyn predicted.The National Bank of Kazakhstan has raised its base rate to 16.5% to curb inflation, aiming for a medium-term target of around 5%. However, forecasts suggest inflation will remain elevated, potentially reaching 11%-17.9% depending on tax hikes and utility reforms. The central bank predicts annual inflation at 10%-12% in 2025 and 9%-11% in 2026, as external pressures and VAT increases continue to weigh on the economy. (ICE ALMATY)

Fonte notizia: INTERFAX