Global economy growth is expected to slow this year, weighed down by trade tensions, policy uncertainties, and geopolitical risks, according to Moody’s Analytics. In a report on Thursday, Moody’s projected global gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by 2.4% in both 2025 and 2026, down from 2.7% in 2024. “The global economy is entering [a] precarious territory. The US has outperformed its peers for most of the past three years, but cracks are starting to show. The prospect of a new debt limit drama and government shutdown in the US could add to the turmoil,” it said. “The risks to this already gloomy forecast tilt to the downside. The world economy looks increasingly fragile, and it would not take much to tip it over. Higher tariffs, increased trade and geopolitical friction, and jumpy financial market trading, are key concerns,” Moody’s noted. China, the world’s second largest economy, is expected to see its GDP growth slow to 4.2% in 2025 and 3.8% in 2026, as trade war pressures and structural challenges make Beijing’s ambitious growth targets harder to achieve. Moody’s noted that while China’s government has set a growth target of “around 5%” for 2024, achieving this will be increasingly difficult at a time when China and US trade tensions are escalating. Meanwhile, growth in Europe and Japan will see slight improvements, as slow and uneven recoveries help them regain some lost ground. India’s GDP growth will hold steady at just shy of 6.5% in 2025 and 2026, roughly in line with the 2024 result. “But most emerging markets will struggle, as trade becomes a less reliable growth engine. Frontier market economies are particularly vulnerable, as US development aid through the US Agency for International Development (USAID) is scaled back,” Moody’s added.  (ICE KUALA LUMPUR)

Fonte notizia: 19 marzo 2025, Kuala Lumpur