Economists at UniCredit commercial bank, which owns Zagrebacka banka (ZABA), presented on 14 January at a press conference during the “Invisso Central and Eastern European Forum 2025,” in Zagreb their forecasts according to which the Croatian economy is forecasted to grow by 3.3% in 2025, driven by domestic demand, European Union (EU) fund absorption, and recovering private investments, with inflation expected to average 3%, Croatian media report. At the same time, the majority of economies in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) are expected to grow between 2% and 3% this year.UniCredit Senior Economist for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), Gokce Celik, highlighted that growth rates between 2% and 3% surpass the anticipated average for Western European nations. However, she did also caution about significant challenges businesses might face, particularly the potential imposition of tariffs by the United States, which remains a primary risk factor for the region.According to Celik, economic growth in CEE will primarily be driven by domestic demand, supported by rising employment, real wages, public investments from recovery plans, and foreign direct investments. While inflation is expected to decline gradually, economists predict the European Central Bank’s (ECB) 2% target may not be reached until late 2026 due to ongoing inflationary challenges.Speaking specifically about Croatia, Hrvoje Dolenec, the Chief Economist at ZABA, provided a detailed outlook. “We expect economic growth of around 3.3%, which will maintain Croatia’s position as one of the fastest-growing economies in both the European Union (EU) and CEE, as it has been in recent years,” stated Dolenec. He specifically attributed this growth to strong domestic demand being driven by rising real incomes, increased personal consumption, efficient absorption of EU funds, and the gradual recovery of private investments.Dolenec also highlighted the anticipated impact of Croatia’s local elections, scheduled for the middle of the year, noting a likely increase in public spending during this period. However, he identified the German economy as the region’s most significant risk, particularly due to potential U.S. tariffs on Germany’s automotive industry. A downturn in Germany, the largest European economy, could have adverse effects on Croatian tourism, leading to reduced arrivals and overnight stays by German tourists.Regarding inflation in Croatia, Dolenec projected an average rate of 3% for 2025, with monthly fluctuations possibly reaching as high as 4%. He also pointed out that regulated prices for electricity, gas, and fuel remain in place, warning that their eventual removal could have significant implications for inflationary trends. (ICE ZAGABRIA)

Fonte notizia: N1 TELEVIZIJA online edition 14/1/2025