According to the European Commission’s Spring Economic Forecasts, Greece is projected to maintain its economic expansion through 2026 and 2027 at rates that consistently outpace both the EU and eurozone averages. Following a robust 2.1% GDP expansion in 2025 driven by investments and net exports, a broader European economic deceleration—triggered by a significant energy price shock—is expected to temper this momentum. As a result, Greece's GDP growth is projected to slow to 1.8% in 2026 and 1.6% in 2027, compared to eurozone growth forecasts of 0.9% and 1.2% respectively.The recent energy price shock will temporarily compress households' real disposable income and drive up retail energy costs. Consequently, Greece's headline inflation forecast for 2026 has been revised upward to 3.7% (up from 2.9% in 2025), before easing back to 2.4% in 2027. To counter these headwinds, a fiscal package including personal income tax cuts and public sector wage increases will partially mitigate the impact on consumers, though private consumption will still experience a slowdown. Downside risks remain tied to a potentially prolonged energy crisis, which could impact tourism and service exports.Investment activity within Greece is forecast to remain strong in 2026, structurally reinforced by a high inflow of capital via the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF). By 2027, output growth is expected to edge down to 1.6% as the implementation period for the RRF reaches completion. Despite this slowdown, strong nominal GDP growth and steady budget surpluses are projected to optimize fiscal fundamentals, driving the debt-to-GDP ratio down toward approximately 134% by the end of 2027. Lastly, while the quarterly unemployment rate fell to an 18-year low of 8.4% in 2025, long-term unemployment persists near 5%—the highest in the EU—highlighting structural challenges such as skills gaps and shortages in care infrastructure. (ICE ATENE)

Fonte notizia: thenationalherald.com